Can the Florida Gators End Georgia Bulldog’s SEC East Run? The Odds Say No

By Rick Rockwell in NCAAF on November 1, 2019

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Minute Read

On Saturday, November 2nd, the SEC East is up for grabs as the No. 6 Florida Gators take on the No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs in a huge conference battle that could have a significant impact on the College Football Playoffs.

Currently, the Gators (7-1, 4-1 SEC) are a half-game ahead of the Bulldogs (6-1, 3-1 SEC) in the SEC East division. With one loss apiece, neither team can afford to lose this weekend. If they do then their CFP hopes will go down the drain.

The Bulldogs have looked vulnerable over the last few games and needed the Bye Week to regain their focus. The Gators have surpassed many expectations already and continue to prove that they’re a legit threat in the SEC East. Their lone loss was to the No. 1 LSU Tigers.

Despite being ranked higher than the Bulldogs, the Gators are a 6.5 point underdog according to sites that offer college football betting. Can Florida prove that they’re the better team this season or will Georgia win for the third straight year?

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Georgia vs Florida Betting Preview

These two teams have played against each other 96 times dating all the way back to 1915. The Bulldogs lead the series with a 51-43-2 record. As mentioned above, Georgia has won two straight against Florida by a combined score of 78 to 24.

Since 2000, the Gators are 12-7 against Georgia. However, the Bulldogs have gone 5-3 in the last eight head to head meetings.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • In their last 10 head to head meetings, Georgia is 5-4-1 ATS .
  • The Over/Under sits at 5-5.
  • Georgia is 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against Florida.

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends

Georgia is 2-4 ATS in their last six overall games and they’re just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games as a betting favorite. However, they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six November games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on a neutral field, and 13-4 ATS when playing against winning teams.

The under is 4-1 in their last five games, 5-2 in their last seven Week 10 games, and 4-1 in their last five Saturday games.

Florida Gators Betting Trends

The Gators are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall games, 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 8-5 ATS when playing against winning teams, and 7-2 ATS following an SEC win.

The over is 4-1 in Florida’s last five November games, but it has gone under in six of their last seven Week 10 games.

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Who's hungry?

WHO'S READY?

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB)

Free SEC Betting Prediction: Florida Gators +6.5 points (-110)

When looking at each team’s resume, you have to be more impressed with what Florida has done than Georgia. The Gators biggest win of the year was against Auburn and they won 24-13. The Bulldogs’ biggest win was against Notre Dame as they won by a score of 23-17.

Unfortunately, Georgia’s win over Notre Dame is less impressive now since the Fighting Irish were blown out by Michigan and plummeted to 16th in the standings. The Auburn Tigers are still a respectable 11th with losses to Florida and LSU.

Speaking of LSU, they handed the Gators their only loss of the season. Currently, the LSU Tigers are ranked No. 1 in the nation. Georgia lost to a 4-4 South Carolina team. Florida defeated South Carolina 38-27 two weeks ago.

The Defenses Will Be Key to Victory

Both teams come into this matchup having top-ranked defenses. The Gators are 25th in the country, allowing 319.5 total yards per game. Not only are the Bulldogs 7th in the nation at 266.7 total ypg, they’re also No. 1 in the SEC. Georgia leads the SEC in points allowed at 10 ppg compared to Florida at 21.2 ppg.

Keep in mind, Florida gave up 55 points to LSU and Auburn. That’s half the points they’ve allowed in conference play. One area where Florida beats Georgia is in sacks. The Gators rank ninth in the country with 29 sacks.

They’re both pretty even when it comes to defending the pass as the Bulldogs allow 181 ypg and the Gators allow 195.4 ypg. However, it’s the run defense where there’s a significant difference. Georgia gives up just 85.7 rushing ypg, which is 5th best in the country. Florida allows 124.1 ypg on the ground.

The Deciding Matchups

As mentioned, the rush defense will be key in this game as Georgia averages 236.9 rushing ypg. Running back D’Andre Swift leads the Bulldogs with 752 yards and seven rushing TDs. Florida will need to stack the box to stop this run and force the Bulldogs to throw.

Another key matchup will be the Bulldogs pass defense versus the Florida passing attack. The Gators average 277.3 passing ypg and the Bulldogs allow 181 ypg through the air. Kyle Trask took over the starting QB spot for Florida in their 4th game of the season and has looked great since then.

Trask has 14 TDs, 4 INTs, and 1,391 yards in 5 starts. His counterpart Jake Fromm has 1,406 yards, 9 TDs, and 3 INTs in seven games this year. Trask threw for 234 yards against a tough Auburn defense and followed that up with 310 yards against the top-ranked LSU Tigers.

If he can do that against those two great defenses, then I believe Trask will have success against the Bulldogs on Saturday. His passing success will also open up the field and allow Florida to run the ball more.

I think this game can go either way. With that said, I also believe it will be a close game that’s decided by a late score. I’m taking Florida and the 6.5 points in this contest. If you can find the Gators at +7 with any online betting site, then jump all over it.

I believe Florida is the better overall team even if they’re not as experienced as the Bulldogs are. Georgia has become too one-dimensional while the Gators have more balance on offense. Look for Trask to outduel Fromm and for the Gators to pull off the upset. At the very least, they will cover the spread.

Pick: Gators +6.5
-110

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Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at Panoramacity to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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