Drydene 400 from Dover Betting Preview, Odds, Props and Predictions

By Rick Rockwell in NASCAR on October 4, 2019

10

Minute Read

On Sunday, October 6th, NASCAR will be live from the Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware, for the Drydene 400. This is the 30th race of the year and the second trip that NASCAR makes to Dover. The first race is the Gander RV 400, which is typically held between mid-May to the beginning of June.

Additionally, this weekend’s race marks the 2nd round of the playoffs where drivers will compete in three events to see if they can advance to Round 3. Following Charlotte, the field has been reset based on playoff points. Kyle Busch is once again back on top of the standings.

NASCAR betting sites have listed Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. as the favorites to win at Dover on Sunday. Drivers like Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick are close behind in odds. Let’s take a look at the latest Drydene 400 odds, identify potential value, and make some racing predictions.

Race Profile

Dover International Speedway, commonly referred to as “The Monster Mile,” was built in 1969 with the first race that July. However, it wasn’t until 1971 that NASCAR decided on having two races at this newer short track.

The speedway is the most basic oval track on the circuit. Each lap is one mile in length with four turns at 24 degrees and two straights at 9 degrees each. The following is a breakdown of this weekend’s Drydene 400 race:

  • Total Miles: 400 miles
  • Total Laps: 400 laps
  • Stage 1: First 120 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 120 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 160 laps

The Drydene 400 is set to begin at 2:30 PM ET and will air live on NBC Sports Network.

3 distinct tracks.
4 eliminated contenders.

Did your favorite driver make it through the Round of 16?

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

Current Playoff Standings

With Round 1 complete, four drivers were eliminated. We are now down to just 12 drivers remaining in the playoffs. The following is the current standings heading into the Drydene 400 at Dover:

  • Kyle Busch (3,046 points)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (3,041 points)
  • Denny Hamlin (3,030 points)
  • Joey Logano (3,029 points)
  • Kevin Harvick (3,028 points)
  • Chase Elliott (3,024 points)
  • Brad Keselowski (3,024 points)
  • Kyle Larson (3,006 points)

Below the Cutoff Line to Advance to Round 3

  • Alex Bowman (3,005 points)
  • Ryan Blaney (3,004 points)
  • William Byron (3,001 points)
  • Clint Bowyer (3,000 points)

Eliminated from the Playoffs

  • Aric Almirola
  • Ryan Newman
  • Kurt Busch
  • Erik Jones

What to Watch for at Dover

With the playoffs rolling into Round 2, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Dover this weekend:

  • Will a playoff driver win the race?
  • Will a non-playoff driver upset the field?
  • Can Chase Elliott continue his strong showings at Dover?
  • Will Kyle Larson get his first Dover win?
  • Can Kyle Busch end his winless streak on the season?

The one thing we can be sure of at ?

Expect the unexpected 😳

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

Previous Drydene 400 Winners

The first fall Dover race took place in 1971 and was won by Richard Petty. Jimmie Johnson holds the record for the most Dover fall race victories with five. He surpassed Petty’s four victories in 2013. Eight former winners will take the starting line on Sunday. The following is a list of the previous Drydene 400 winners dating back to 2000:

  • Tony Stewart in 2000
  • Dale Earndhardt Jr. in 2001
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2013
  • Ryan Newman in 2003, 2004
  • Jeff Burton in 2006
  • Carl Edwards in 2007
  • Greg Biffle in 2008
  • Kurt Busch in 2011
  • Brad Keselowski in 2012
  • Jeff Gordon in 2014
  • Kevin Harvick in 2015
  • Martin Truex Jr, in 2016
  • Kyle Busch in 2017
  • Chase Elliott in 2018

NASCAR Drydene 400 Betting Odds

The following Drydene 400 betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline’s sportsbook:

  • Kyle Busch (+375)
  • Martin Truex Jr (+375)
  • Kyle Larson (+500)
  • Chase Elliott (+600)
  • Kevin Harvick (+600)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1200)
  • Denny Hamlin (+1200)
  • Joey Logano (+1200)
  • Erik Jones (+2000)
  • Ryan Blaney (+2000)
  • Alex Bowman (+2200)
  • Clint Bowyer (+2500)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+2500)
  • Kurt Busch (+2500)
  • William Byron (+2800)
  • Daniel Suarez (+6600)
  • Aric Almirola (+8000)
  • Austin Dillon (+10000)
  • Matt DiBenedetto (+10000)
  • Ryan Newman (+12500)

Betting Favorites for Dover

According to the Best NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kyle Busch 3 12 18 9.6 14.6 7
Martin Truex Jr 3 6 15 11.0 12.6 2
Kyle Larson 0 5 8 8.3 8.0 0
Chase Elliott 1 6 6 9.4 4.4 0
Kevin Harvick 2 7 18 15.6 14.0 1

Kyle Busch (+375)

Nobody doubts Busch’s talents; however, questions are popping up regarding the sport’s top driver as he continues his 4-month long winless streak. Last weekend in Charlotte was another example of Busch’s bad luck as he had mechanical issues with his car and didn’t finish the race.

In the playoffs, Busch was 19th at Vegas, 2nd and Richmond and 37th at Charlotte’s road course. A 19.3 average finish in Round 1 is concerning no matter who the driver is. Fortunately, Busch is returning to a track where he’s raced well at in his career.

In 29 races at Dover, Busch has three wins, 12 Top 5’s, 18 Top 10’s, and a 14.6 average finish. His seven DNFs are concerning, but Busch did finish 10th in the spring race and 8th in this fall race lace year. Plus, he won this race in 2017.

I expect Busch to bounce back and have a strong running at Dover just like he did at Richmond two weeks ago. It’s now or never for the #18 car to re-establish himself as one of the top contenders for the championship.

Martin Truex Jr (+375)   

Where Busch has fallen short, his teammate Martin Truex Jr. has been great. In the first round of playoff races, Truex won two of the three events. He leads the series with six wins on the season and is poised to make a serious run at his second championship in the last three years.

Truex won at Vegas, beat out Busch at Richmond, and came home 7th at Charlotte last weekend. He’s now 2nd in the standings just five points behind Busch and one of the favorites for this weekend at Dover.

Truex is also tied with Kyle Busch for three wins at Dover. However, he has a better average finish of 12.6 than Busch. Truex has six Top 5’s, 15 Top 10’s, and only two DNFs in 27 starts. He won the spring race here and was 15th last fall.

In his last 15 races at Dover, Truex has finished in the Top 15 every time. He also has 12 Top 10’s, five Top 5’s, and two wins during that span. Truex is a serious contender for this Sunday. I like him more than his teammates Busch or Denny Hamlin.


Kyle Larson (+500)

Heading into Round 2 of the playoffs, Kyle Larson is in eighth place just one spot above the cutoff line. He ran well in the opening round of playoff races with an 8th, 6th, and 13th results. Those finishes have kept him in the 8th spot for the playoffs so far. I have a feeling that will change after this weekend.

Dover is a track where Larson has run well in his young career. Among playoff drivers, he has the second-best average finish at 8.0. In 11 races at Dover, Larson has five Top 5’s, eight Top 10’s, and has completed every race.

Larson finished 3rd in the spring Dover race this year and has led 463 laps during his career at DIS. I expect Larson to be a Top 5 car on Sunday. Can he get his first career win at this track?

Chase Elliott (+600)        

Chase Elliott, along with Truex, comes into Dover with the most momentum. He won the Charlotte ROVAL last weekend and had a 5.3 average finish in Round 1 of the playoffs. Elliott also led laps in two of the three opening-round races.

Now, Elliott heads to a track where he’s been brilliant at in his short career. Chase has raced here seven times and has one win, six Top 5’s, six Top 10’s, and a 4.4 average finish that leads all active drivers.

Elliott finished 5th in the spring Dover race and won this fall race last year. His worst ever finish was 12th in the 2018 spring race, otherwise, he’s never finished outside of the Top 5 other than that race. It’s incredible as to what he’s done at “The Monster Mile.” Elliott will be a serious threat to win this race on Sunday.

You can expect the unexpected at the !

Will be able to defend his win at Dover?

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

Kevin Harvick (+600)      

Harvick came into the playoffs with arguably the most momentum. He had won three of the final seven races during the regular season, including the last regular season race at Indianapolis. Other than a blown clutch, Harvick would’ve finished in the Top 10 in all seven of those events.

Harvick continued his momentum in Round 1 of the playoffs by finishing 2nd at Vegas, 7th at Richmond, and 3rd at Charlotte. That’s a 4.0 average finish in the first three postseason races. Other than Truex and Elliott, I would say that Harvick had the best opening round of the playoffs.

Now, he heads to a track where he has two career wins. He also has seven Top 5’s, 18 Top 10’s, and a 14.0 average finish. In 37 career Dover races, Harvick has only crashed out of one race. That’s an impressive accomplishment in itself.

Harvick was 4th in this year’s spring race, 6th in the 2018 Drydene 400 race, and won the 2018 spring race. He’s also led the most laps over the last three races at Dover International Speedway. I expect Harvick to contend with Truex, Elliott, Busch and Larson for the checkered flag this weekend.

The Best Drydene 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for this Sunday’s race due to their current betting odds, their past success at Dover International Speedway, and their 2019 season so far:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Brad Keselowski 1 5 8 10.9 13.2 1
Denny Hamlin 0 4 11 10.6 17.5 4
Joey Logano 0 4 12 13.3 13.2 1
Clint Bowyer 0 3 15 17.3 13.2 1

Brad Keselowski (+1200)

I’m slightly surprised with Keselowski’s odds to win the Drydene 400. I would’ve thought he should’ve been at least closer to Harvick’s +600 betting line. Other than Harvick, Elliott and Truex, Keselowski has been the best driver in Round 1 of the playoffs. He’s been just as good as Harvick with an average finish of 4.0.

Keselowski was 3rd at Vegas, 4th at Richmond after starting on the pole, and 5th at Charlotte. And like Harvick, he’s also won at Dover in his career. Albeit, his victory was seven years ago.

Nevertheless, with three wins on the season and a strong opening round to this postseason, Keselowski at +1200 odds offers great value. Brad has finished 18 of his 19 career starts at this track and has led laps in the last four races, which he also has an average finish of 13.0 during that span.

For his career, Keselowski’s 13.2 average finish at Dover is tied for the 4th best among active drivers. I expect Keselowski to be at Top 10 car on Sunday and possibly surprise the favorites by time it’s all said and done.

Denny Hamlin (+1200)   

Hamlin tore up the second half of the regular season by scoring three of his four wins and being a Top 5 driver in another handful of races. He came into the playoffs battling Harvick as the driver with the most momentum.

Unfortunately, he only finished in the Top 5 once during Round 1 of the playoffs, and that was a 3rd place result at Richmond. Hamlin was 15th at Vegas and 19th last weekend at Charlotte.

He still has two wins in the last nine overall races on the season but needs to put together some Top 10’s in Round 2 or fall closer to the wrong side of the cutoff line for Round 3.

Of the Top 8 drivers in the playoff standings, Hamlin joins Joey Logano and Kyle Larson as the only drivers to have never won at Dover. In 27 starts, Hamlin has only four Top 5’s in addition to 4 DNFs. This track hasn’t been his favorite course.

Hamlin finished 21st in the spring race, but 2nd last year in the Drydene 400. He does have five Top 10’s in the last seven Dover races and I believe he will get another one this weekend. Hamlin’s 2019 season has been one of his best and I see the #11 car gaining some traction this Sunday at Dover.

Joey Logano (+1200)      

Like Hamlin, Logano hasn’t raced as well at Dover as he would like. His 13.2 average finish is 4th best among playoff drivers, but he’s only cracked the Top 5 on four occasions. That’s a 19% rate, which is pretty low for the defending Cup champion.

Despite this, Logano finished 3rd in this race last year and 7th in the spring Dover race. Over his last seven fall races at Dover, Logano has a 7.4 average finish. That’s nearly six spots higher than his career numbers at this track. It appears that Logano is a much better driver at Dover when the season changes.

I expect Logano to fly under the radar for most of the race and end up with at least a Top 10 car by time it’s all said and done.

Clint Bowyer (+2500)

Last weekend, Bowyer was staring down a possible playoff elimination. However, the wily veteran finished 4th overall at Charlotte and was able to jump from 14th to 12th in the standings. That allowed him to advance into Round 2.

Bowyer has another tough task at hand as he has to beat out at least four other drivers to advance to the next round and only three races get this done. Currently, Bowyer has a 12.3 average finish in the postseason. He will need to finish higher in every race of Round 2 to make it to Round 3.

Although Bowyer has never won at Dover, he has raced well. Like Logano and others, he does have a 13.2 average finish. Other than a crash in last year’s race, he has three Top 10’s and one Top 5 in the last four Dover races.

Bowyer finished 9th in the spring race here and I expect him to challenge that result this weekend. At +2500 odds, Bowyer is appealing especially since he’s the most desperate of the playoff drivers right now.

The Top Longshot to win the Drydene 400

Typically, I save this spot for drivers with odds of at least +8000 to +10000. However, with 12 playoff drivers trying to win, it’s hard to imagine a non-playoff driver getting the checkered flag. But, if there’s one who can, it’s Jimmie Johnson.

Johnson’s +2500 line isn’t a longshot compared to others. It’s more of which drivers outside of the playoffs with longer odds have a realistic chance at winning. Johnson has the all-time record of 11 Dover wins. He also leads active drivers with most Top 5’s (17), Top 10’s (24) and laps led (3,109).

In the last six Dover races, Johnson has four Top 10’s, two Top 5’s, and one victory. He’s also led laps in four of those races. With only 2 DNFs in 35 career starts, I expect Johnson to turn back the hands of time and compete for a Top 10 spot on Sunday. With a little bit of luck, he could contend for the win.

Drydene 400 Prop Bets: Driver Matchups

The following NASCAR prop bets require bettors to select the winning driver out of head-to-head matchups at Dover on Sunday, October 6th. These driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes:

Kyle Larson (-120) vs Chase Elliott (-110)

Driver Kyle Larson Chase Elliott
Wins 0 1
Top 5 5 6
Top 10 8 6
Avg Start 8.3 9.4
Avg Finish 8.0 4.4
DNF 0 0
Total Races 11 7

This is a tough head to head battle to choose from. Both young drivers are very talented and have raced well at Dover for their respective careers. With that said, and it pains me to make this prediction, Chase Elliott will beat out my hometown driver Kyle Larson.

Larson has never won at this track and Elliott has. Not to mention, Elliott has more Top 5’s in less races and a better average finish of 4.4 to 8.0. Furthermore, Elliott is coming off a win last weekend at Charlotte and also has a better average finish in the playoffs so far with a 6.0 to Larson’s 9.0.

I think both drivers will finish in the Top 5, but I like Elliott to finish a spot or two higher than Larson.

Winner: Chase Elliott (-110)

Kevin Harvick (-155) vs Denny Hamlin (+125)

Driver Kevin Harvick Denny Hamlin
Wins 2 0
Top 5 7 4
Top 10 18 11
Avg Start 15.6 10.6
Avg Finish 14.0 17.5
DNF 1 4
Total Races 27 37

Unlike the first matchup, this one isn’t as tough to choose from. Kevin Harvick has been the better driver at Dover than Hamlin. I expect him to keep that trend and win this head to head matchup.

Over the last three Dover races, Harvick has a victory and a 3.7 average finish. Hamlin has a 10.0 average finish and the best finish of 2nd. In the playoffs so far, Hamlin has a 12.3 average finish while Harvick has a 4.0 average finish.

When you factor in both drivers in the postseason so far, with their past success at Dover, the results point to Harvick being the better driver of the two. I think Hamlin will squeak into the Top 10, but I believe Harvick will contend for a checkered flag.

Winner: Kevin Harvick (-155)

Drydene 400 Checkered Flag

This is a difficult race for selecting a winner especially since there are at least four to five drivers with a legitimate chance at winning. Not to mention, we could have plenty of combinations of drivers in the Top 10 at Dover due to it being a short track, pit strategies, and plenty of cautions for car wrecks.

I believe the winner will come from Harvick, Larson, Elliott, Truex and Kyle Busch. Out of these five, I’m eliminating Busch due to his recent slump and Larson because he has yet to win at this track. That leaves Truex, Elliott, and Harvick.

Now, Truex and Elliott have won the first three races of the postseason so far. And both are among the favorites to win this weekend as well. Truex is one of my favorite drivers and I would love to see him win again, but I think he’s going to come up short.

I don’t see Truex sweeping both Dover races this year. It’s only been done one time in the last 15 years, and that was in 2009 by Jimmie Johnson.

I don’t think you can go wrong in picking Elliott or Harvick to win, but I am going with Harvick. He’s been consistently in the Top 5 with a 4.0 average finish for Round 1 of the playoffs. His 3.7 average finish at Dover over the last three races is also better than Elliott and Truex.

He’s got a lot of momentum on his side and the #4 typically gets a win or two in the postseason.

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Kyle Larson
  • Chase Elliott
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Kyle Busch

Drydene 400 Betting Recap

Winner: Kevin Harvick (+600)

Betting Value:

  • Brad Keselowski (+1200)
  • Denny Hamlin (+1200)
  • Joey Logano (+1200)
  • Clint Bowyer (+2500)

Longshot: Jimmie Johnson (+2500)

Driver Matchups:

  • Chase Elliott (-110) over Kyle Larson
  • Kevin Harvick (-155) over Denny Hamlin

NASCAR Props Challenge for Week 30

Every week, for fans to choose the right answers, earn points and win prizes. For the 30th race of the season, there are a few props that I think you should go with:

Which Playoff Driver Will Finish Higher?

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Joey Logano

This is a good prop bet to examine. Both drivers are firmly entrenched in the playoff battle, but I do give Logano the slight edge in this matchup. Neither man has won at this track before, but Logano has fared better in recent years.

Hamlin has a 17.5 average finish compared to Logano’s 13.2. Additionally, Logano has that impressive run in the fall Dover race with a 7.4 average finish over the last seven races. In this year’s spring race, Logano was 7th while Hamlin was 21st.

In last year’s Drydene 400, Hamlin was 2nd and Logano was 3rd. However, Logano led six laps and Hamlin led none. Logano is the choice this weekend.

Prop Bet: Joey Logano finishes higher at Dover

Which Team Has the Highest Finisher?

  • Team Penske
  • Stewart Hass

For Team Penske, they have Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano in the playoffs and vying for the win at Dover. Team Stewart Hass has Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick in the playoffs. However, they also have Daniel Suarez who has the second-best average finish at Dover with 7.6.

Suarez could easily sneak in and beat out all five of the playoff drivers. For me, this prop bet all comes down to Logano and Keselowski versus Kevin Harvick. I believe both Logano and Keselowski will finish with Top 10 cars, but I like Kevin Harvick to win this race.

Bring it on, Miles the Monster! 💪 These hot rods are ready to battle the on Sunday and bring home SHR's fourth win of the season. Who ya got heading to victory lane after the 400-lap race? 🏁

Catch all the action on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on . 📺

— Stewart-Haas Racing (@StewartHaasRcng)

Prop Bet: Stewart Haas will win the battle of racing teams

Over/Under 15.5 Lead Changes

Let’s look at the past Dover results to pick the right choice:

  • The Under is 3-2 in the last five races at Dover.
  • The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 races at Dover.

If you go back further, the O/U 15.5 lead changes gets a lot closer. So, let’s stick with the recent trends and take the Under for this prop bet. The Under hit in the spring race this year and last year’s Drydene 400 as well.

Prop Bet: Under 15.5 lead changes
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at Panoramacity to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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