AAA Texas 500 Betting Preview, Odds, Props and Race Winner

By Rick Rockwell in NASCAR on November 1, 2019

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Minute Read

On Sunday, November 3rd, NASCAR will be live from the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas, for the AAA Texas 500. This will be NASCAR’s second trip to Texas in 2019. It’s also the 34th race of the season and the 2nd race in Round 3 of the playoffs.

Last weekend, Martin Truex Jr. took the checkered flag at Martinsville and punched his ticket to the Championship race in two weeks. It will be his third straight appearance in the final round. Seven other eligible playoff drivers are hoping to follow in Truex’s footsteps by winning at Texas this weekend.

Sites that offer NASCAR betting have released odds for this race and Kyle Busch and his teammate Martin Truex Jr. are the co-betting favorites. Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin closely follow them. That gives Joe Gibbs Racing three of the top four betting favorites for this Sunday’s race.

The Round of 8 rolls on in the Lone Star State. 🏁 |

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

Let’s go under the hood and take a closer look at these racing odds, identify potential betting value, check out some prop bets and take the checkered flag with our winning predictions.

Race Profile

The Texas Motor Speedway first broke ground in 1995 and was opened for business in 1996. The first NASCAR race was held in 1997, but it wasn’t until 2005 that NASCAR began holding two races per year at this track.

The Texas Motor Speedway is similar to both Atlanta and Charlotte speedways. Each lap is a distance of just under 1.5 miles with a banking of 20 degrees in turns 1-2 and 24 degrees in turns 3-4. The following is a breakdown of this weekend’s race:

  • Total Miles: 501 miles
  • Total Laps: 334 laps
  • Stage 1: First 85 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 85 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 164 laps

The AAA Texas 500 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on NBC Sports Network.

What to Watch for at Texas

With only two more races until the 2019 Championship from Homestead-Miami, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Texas this weekend:

  • Who will advanced to the Championship round?
  • Can Denny Hamlin sweep the Texas races this season?
  • Will Kevin Harvick make it three Texas playoff wins in a row?
  • Will a non-playoff driver crash the party and win on Sunday?
  • Is Joe Gibbs Racing too powerful for other teams to beat?

Current Playoff Standings

The AAA Texas 500 is the second race of Round 3 and is one of only two more chances for seven of the remaining eight drivers to advance to the Championship Race. Martin Truex Jr. won last weekend at Martinsville, which means he’s already punched his ticket to the Championship race in Homestead-Miami.

The following is a current breakdown of the playoff standings based on points:

  • Martin Truex Jr. (4,102 points)
  • Denny Hamlin (4,082 points)
  • Kyle Busch (4,075 points)
  • Joey Logano (4,072 points)

Below the Cutoff Line for Championship Race

  • Kevin Harvick (4,058 points)
  • Ryan Blaney (4,057 points)
  • Kyle Larson (4,048 points)
  • Chase Elliott (4,028 points)

Eliminated from the Playoffs

  • Brad Keselowski
  • William Byron
  • Clint Bowyer
  • Alex Bowman
  • Aric Almirola
  • Ryan Newman
  • Kurt Busch
  • Erik Jones

Who books a spot next? |

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

Previous AAA Texas 500 Winners

As mentioned, the first fall race at Texas was in 2005 and won by Carl Edwards. Since then, Jimmie Johnson has gone on to claim the most AAA Texas 500 checkered flags with five. Kevin Harvick is the reigning champ of this race after winning it in 2018 and 2017. There have only been six different drivers to win this race since its inception.

The following is a list of the previous AAA Texas 500 winners:

  • Carl Edwards in 2005, 2008, 2016
  • Tony Stewart in 2006, 2011
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2007, 2012-2015
  • Kurt Busch in 2009
  • Denny Hamlin in 2010
  • Kevin Harvick in 2017, 2018

Four previous winners will participate in this race on Sunday: Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick.

NASCAR AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline’s sportsbook:

  • Kyle Busch (+500)
  • Martin Truex Jr (+500)
  • Chase Elliott (+700)
  • Denny Hamlin (+700)
  • Joey Logano (+800)
  • Kevin Harvick (+800)
  • Kyle Larson (+800)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1200)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1400)
  • Erik Jones (+2500)
  • Kurt Busch (+2500)
  • William Byron (+2500)
  • Alex Bowman (+2800)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+3300)
  • Clint Bowyer (+6600)
  • Aric Almirola (+8000)
  • Daniel Suarez (+8000)
  • Austin Dillon (+12500)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+12500)
  • Ryan Newman (+12500)

AAA Texas 500 Betting Favorites

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the AAA Texas 500:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kyle Busch 3 12 14 14.4 11.7 0
Martin Truex Jr 0 4 15 14.6 13.8 4
Chase Elliott 0 2 5 17.3 8.0 0
Denny Hamlin 3 7 13 14.1 13.2 1
Joey Logano 1 9 11 13.0 14.5 1

Kyle Busch (+500)

The winless streak for Kyle Busch continues, but he has found a way to stay in the Top 4 of the standings and is 17 points above the cutoff line heading into this weekend’s race. Busch finished 14th at Martinsville last weekend and fell from 1st to 3rd in the standings.

In the seven playoff races so far, Busch only has three Top 5s and three Top 10s. If it weren’t for how well he performed during the regular season, Busch would’ve probably been eliminated from the playoffs already.

In 27 career starts at Texas, Busch has three wins, 12 Top 5s, and 14 Top 10s. His 11.7 average finish is the 6th best among active drivers and 3rd best among the remaining playoff drivers. Over the last 15 races at this track, Busch has three wins and never finished worse than 19th.

In the spring Texas race, Kyle was 10th and led 66 laps. He’s had a few ho-hum runs at this fall race the last two years with an 18.0 average finish. However, with so much on the line, I expect Busch to pull off a strong result this weekend. Will it be enough to win the race?

Martin Truex Jr (+500)

Last weekend, Truex dominated the field by leading 464 of the 500 laps at Martinsville. He scored his 7th victory of the season by taking the checkered flag. It was also his third win of the playoffs in seven races. Truex is now set to compete in the Championship race at Homestead-Miami in two weeks.

Only a crash late in the Talladega race has kept Truex from finishing in the Top 10 for every playoff race this postseason. Outside of Talladega, Truex has finished 7th or better in the other six playoff races.

Although he’s never won at Texas before, Truex has run well here with a 13.8 average finish. In his last nine races at this track, Truex has seven Top 10s. For his career, Truex is finishing inside the Top Ten 53.6% percent of the time, and I expect him to do it again this Sunday.

I don’t see Truex winning this race, but I do see him having a solid run and a Top 10 result. He will keep his momentum going and turn his attention toward winning another championship in two weeks.

Chase Elliott (+700)

Despite starting 2nd last weekend at Martinsville, Elliott had a terrible performance. His 36th place finish dropped him to 8th in the standings, 44 points below the cutoff line. Elliott is going to need to win a race or for the other four drivers directly ahead of him to have some bad luck these next two weekends. Otherwise, Elliott won’t advance to the championship race.

Fortunately, Texas is a track where Elliott has run well at in his young career. Although he hasn’t captured a checkered flag as of yet, Elliott has two Top 5s, five Top 10s, and his 8.0 average finish is the best among all active drivers.

In his three starts at the AAA Texas 500, Elliott has a 6.0 average finish. Combine that with a 71.4% Top 10 finishing rate, and I believe Chase will be a contender this weekend at Texas. He might get nipped late in the race, but I expect him to finish with a Top 5 result and put himself in a good position for next weekend’s elimination race.

Denny Hamlin (+700)

Hamlin was my pick to win at Martinsville last weekend, but his teammate Martin Truex Jr. ended up being the overwhelming winner with a dominant performance. However, Hamlin started on the pole, led 30 laps, and finished 4th overall. That bumped him up from 3rd to 2nd in the standings.

Hamlin, along with Truex, has built up a lot of momentum in the playoffs. He’s never finished lower than 19th and has five Top 5s in seven races. He won two weekends ago at Kansas, which is similar to Texas in lap distance and speeds.

Hamlin is second on the circuit with five wins this season. One of those wins came in the spring Texas race. He started 6th, led for 45 laps and took the checkered flag. It was his first win at this track since 2010 when he swept both Texas races that year.

So, we must ask ourselves if Hamlin can sweep both Texas races this year. He certainly has a strong case for doing so: five wins this year and an incredible postseason run so far.

I believe Hamlin will be at least a Top 10 car, but I’m more confident in other drivers on Sunday than the #11 car.

Joey Logano (+800)

The 2018 NASCAR champ finds himself on the right side of the cutoff line with a cushion of 14 points heading into this race. He finished 8th at Martinsville and had one of his typical under the radar runs where he’s in the Top 10, but nobody notices him. Once again, it’s why I call him the “silent assassin.”

With that said, Logano is on a lengthy winless streak just like Kyle Busch. Additionally, like Busch, Logano is still alive in the postseason largely because of his regular-season performance.

If he doesn’t have a strong run at Texas on Sunday, then his luck is going to run out. Like Hamlin and Elliott, Logano has run well here over the last few years.

In his last 13 Texas races, Logano has one win, eight Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s. His average finish over that span is 8.3, which puts him right up near the front of the pack with Chase Elliott.

Because he hasn’t won in almost five months, I can’t pick him to win this weekend. However, I do expect Logano to have at least a Top 10 car, which could see him quietly sneak into the Top 5 by the time it’s all said and done.

The Best Texas Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the AAA Texas 500 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Texas Motor Speedway, and their 2019 season so far:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kevin Harvick 2 10 21 16.2 10.7 1
Erik Jones 0 3 4 15.0 9.3 0
Kurt Busch 1 3 20 14.0 14.4 2

Kevin Harvick (+800)

I’m a bit surprised that Harvick is listed with these odds considering his success in this race and at this track. I believe he offers the best value this weekend.

Harvick has won the AAA Texas 500 two years in a row. He’s looking for a three-peat this Sunday. Additionally, he has the 2nd best average finish of 10.7 among all active drivers. Harvick has finished in the Top 10 for ten straight races, including two wins and seven Top 5s.

In the playoffs this year, Harvick has finished 17th or better in every race. He has six Top 10s and three Top 5s this postseason. Last weekend, he finished 7th despite starting 22nd. Two weekends ago, he started 40th at Kansas and finished 9th. It seems like Harvick can overcome most obstacles this second half of the season.

Also, over that stretch, Harvick has three wins in the last 13 races. He’s performed better than Logano and Kyle Busch during that span and in the playoffs. Yet, he’s ranked lower with online betting sites. Do you see the value here?

Erik Jones (+2500)

Jones has been long eliminated from the playoffs, but he comes to a track where he has decent success at. In the last four Texas races, Jones has three Top 5s and four Top 10s. He’s finished 4th in three straight races at this track. Jones has also led in two of the last three Texas races.

Unfortunately for Jones, these last seven playoff races haven’t been kind to him, which is why he was eliminated after the first round. Over that span, he only has one Top 10. In five of those seven races, Jones finished 20th or worse. In four of those races he finished 30th or worse.

In reality, it can’t get any worse for Jones. With that said, I expect him to rebound nicely this weekend and compete for a Top 10 spot. His +2500 odds offer decent value as he could pull off a miracle victory this Sunday.

Kurt Busch (+2500)

Between Kurt Busch and Erik Jones, I feel more confident with the veteran as he won this race back in 2009. Furthermore, Busch has finished in the Top 10 for eight of the last ten Texas races, including five straight.

Busch was 9th in the spring race at this track and 7th last year in the AAA Texas 500. In the last five fall Texas races, Busch has a 10.2 average finish, which is better than his average career finish of 14.4.

Kurt was eliminated from the playoffs after Round 1, but he’s run well since then. In the last four races, Kurt has three Top 10s. Last weekend at Martinsville, Kurt was 6th overall. I see Busch competing for a Top 10 spot this weekend, and he could be a huge benefactor of luck or crashes late in the race.

The Top Longshot to Win the AAA Texas 500

Jimmie Johnson and his +3300 odds aren’t the largest of the field this weekend, but nobody below him has a realistic shot at winning the AAA Texas 500. Even Johnson has a tough chance, but that’s what makes him a longshot.

At Texas, Johnson leads all active drivers with the most wins (7), most Top 5s (16), most Top 10s (22) and laps led (1,112). He’s won the AAA Texas 500 a record five times.

Over the last 15 Texas races, Johnson has six wins, nine Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and finished 5th in the spring race this year after leading 60 laps. He also started on the pole for that race. I like Johnson’s chances this weekend to at least compete in the Top 10 and maybe catch a lucky break to help snap a near-two year winless drought.

.'s career at :

Wins: 7 (1st)
Top 5s: 16 (1st)
Top 10s: 22 (1st)
Laps led: 1,112 (1st)

Could this be the weekend the winless streak ends?

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

AAA Texas 500 Prop Bets: Driver Matchups

The following NASCAR prop bets require bettors to pick the winning driver out of head-to-head matchups at Texas on Sunday, November 3rd. These driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes:

Chase Elliott (-120) vs Kyle Larson (-120)

Driver Chase Elliott Kyle Larson
Wins 0 0
Top 5 2 3
Top 10 5 4
Avg Start 17.3 16.9
Avg Finish 8.0 20.4
DNF 0 4
Total Races 7 12

I’ve already laid out Chase Elliott’s chances this weekend in the betting favorites section above. Let’s take a look at Kyle Larson now.

Texas hasn’t been a good track for Larson in his career. Although he did finish 5th in this race last year, he has crashed out in three of the last four races. Furthermore, he has more 30+ finishes (4) than he does Top 5s (3) and just as many as his Top 10s (4).

Of the remaining playoff drivers, Larson’s 20.4 average finish is the second worse. Only Ryan Blaney at 20.9 is lower than Larson.

With that said, I’m surprised at the odds for this head to head matchup. Elliott has never finished worse than 13th at Texas and has led in five of his seven career appearances. In Larson’s 12 career starts, he’s only led laps in one race, which he ended up crashing out of two years ago.

It’s safe to say that Elliott will win this head to head battle. Larson will be lucky to crack the Top 15 while Elliott competes for a checkered flag.

Winner: Chase Elliott (-120)

Kevin Harvick (-120) vs Joey Logano (-120)

Driver Kevin Harvick Joey Logano
Wins 2 1
Top 5 10 9
Top 10 21 11
Avg Start 16.2 13.0
Avg Finish 10.7 14.5
DNF 1 1
Total Races 33 22

This is going to be a fun head to head battle to watch as both drivers can win this race, and they both should have a Top 5 finish.

With that said, I’m going with Kevin Harvick to win this matchup. He has more wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, and a better average finish. Despite having 11 more opportunities at this track, he also has just as many DNFs as Logano.

I strongly laid out Harvick’s argument in the betting value section above. But, to recap, he has won the AAA Texas 500 two straight times and has a 10 race streak of finishing in the Top 10. During that span, he also has seven Top 5s and has led in eight of those races.

Over the last 10 Texas races, Logano has had a nice run as well, but he hasn’t won at this track in 5 ½ years. He also has three finishes outside the Top 10 and one 40th place result. Over the last five fall Texas races, Logano has a 12.8 average finish. During that span, Harvick has a 2.6 average finish.

Harvick hasn’t finished outside the Top 10 in the AAA Texas 500 since 2013, and he was 13th that year. Logano was 40th in this race back in 2015.

I think Logano is going to have a solid run on Sunday, but I think Harvick will be the man to beat at Texas.

Winner: Kevin Harvick (-120)

AAA Texas 500 Checkered Flag

If you paid close attention to my betting preview for this race, you would have noticed that I’ve left plenty of clues as to who I think will win at Texas on Sunday. That driver is Kevin Harvick. I like what he’s done at this track over the last several years.

Additionally, he’s had a strong second half of the season, including the playoffs. Harvick is going to be the man to beat on Sunday. I do see Chase Elliott and at least one Busch brother giving Harvick some competition this weekend.

Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin pulled off the win. Both drivers want to stay above the cutoff line, and they both have had some success at this track. Keep in mind, Hamlin won this race in the spring.

With that said, it’s all about Harvick this Sunday, and I expect the No. 4 car to pick up his third straight win in the AAA Texas 500.

Looking for a solid bet at ? currently has a top-10 streak of ten races at the track, the longest among active drivers.

— NASCAR (@NASCAR)

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Kyle Busch
  • Chase Elliott
  • Joey Logano
  • Jimmie Johnson

AAA Texas 500 Betting Recap

Winner: Kevin Harvick (+800)

Betting Value:

  • Kevin Harvick (+800)
  • Erik Jones (+2500)
  • Kurt Busch (+2500)

Longshot: Jimmie Johnson (+3300)

Driver Matchups:

  • Chase Elliott (-120) over Kyle Larson
  • Kevin Harvick (-120) over Joey Logano

NASCAR Props Challenge for Week 34

Every week, for fans to choose the right answers, earn points and win prizes. For the 34th race of the season, there are a few props that I think you should go with:

Which Playoff Driver Finishes Higher: Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin?

I alluded to these two drivers in the section above. First of all, I wouldn’t be surprised if either man won this race on Sunday. Hamlin took the checkered flag at Texas in the spring, which gave him his 3rd career win at this track. Logano has one career victory at this track.

Logano also has a streak of eight Top 5s and 10 Top 10s in the last 13 Texas races. Other than Hamlin’s win this spring, he’s only had one Top 5 and three Top 10s in the previous 10 Texas races. In the last five AAA Texas 500 races, Logano has a 12.8 average finish, and Hamlin has a 16.0 average finish.

Hamlin has more wins on the season and more momentum heading into Texas on Sunday, but I expect Logano to edge out Hamlin as both drivers finish in the Top 10.

Prop Bet: Joey Logano will finisher higher than Denny Hamlin.

Will Kevin Harvick Finish in the Top 5 on Sunday?

Keeping with the Harvick-Texas theme to this article, I believe that Harvick will continue his streak of Top 5 finishes this weekend. I expect Harvick to win this race.

Harvick has a 2.6 average finish over the last five fall Texas races with two wins, three Top 5s, and four Top 6s. He has a streak of ten straight Top 10 finishes and was 8th this spring. There’s nothing on paper that makes me think Harvick can’t win this race for the third straight year.

Prop Bet: Yes, Kevin Harvick will finish in the Top 5.

The Race Winner Will Start Inside the Top 10 on Sunday.

This is an interesting prop bet, but if you look at the results at this track then you will see a clear trend.

The race winner started in the Top 10 in:

  • Four of the last five Texas races.
  • Nine of the last 10 Texas races.
  • 17 of the last 20 Texas races.
  • 30 of the 37 Texas races.

Additionally, in only three of the 14 fall Texas races has the winner started outside the Top 10. I have no doubt in my mind that the race winner will come from the Top 10 this Sunday.

Keep an eye on where Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott all start once qualifying is done.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at Panoramacity to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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